Notes

Welcome to another edition. Here are today’s entries:

01.  The Deflating Tech Hiring Bubble

What does this show?

The tech hiring bubble is deflating fast.

Why does it matter?

While there have been layoffs across the US economy in recent months, technology is outpacing every other sector. There is much speculation what might be the cause, the most obvious one is that tech overhired during the pandemic, and it is now forced to unwind it. For example, Meta has already let go 25% of its employees, a big chunk of the number it hired during the pandemic. It was partly driven by zero interest rate policies and tech being favored during pandemic, but some of it was also a form of hoarding, where companies convinced themselves that they had to hire people before someone else did. 

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02.  California Swinging Between Climate Extremes

What does this show?

California’s in the midst of 1000-year rainy winter, coming after the worst drought in 1000 years.

Why does it matter?

It seems increasing that California is swinging more than ever between climate extremes. We had the most extreme drought in 1000 years, followed by the most extreme rainy season in probably a similar length of time. Nothing in climate is monocausal, but it seems clear that there are dramatic changes going on in the eastern Pacific with consequences for the western North American climate. Specifically, it seems to be isolating between ridges and rivers, with one blocking all climate coming into California, and the other creating a constant flow of storms. 

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03.  Proportion of Teens Who’ve Dated, Drank Alcohol, or Worked is Collapsing

What does this show?

The proportion of teens who’ve dated, drank alcohol, gotten a driver’s license, or worked is in full collapse. 

Why does it matter?

Most people realize this collapse, but that it is affecting teens across many activities at once can ,be startling. The decline began in the mid-1990s, and their world is no longer recognizable. People have tried to attach the inflection to various things, like widespread Internet use, or cellphones, but it seems clear that both had an impact, and there are perhaps others. The upshot is the same, that the world of young people is unrecognizable compared to even a few decades ago. 

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Welcome to another edition. Here are today’s entries:

01.  Africa: Median Age Lowest in the World

What does this show?

Africa has the lowest median age of any continent, and it’s not even close. 

Why does it matter?

The median age in Africa is, at 18, the lowest in the world, and it’s not even close. This is a remarkable and little-discussed statistic, in that it not only has the youngest population on earth, it is the youngest by a wide margin. And this has many ripple effects, like that by 2100 almos half of the young people on earth will live in Africa. 

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02.  Africa: Fast-growing Continent on Earth

What does this show?

Africa is the fastest-growing continent on earth, which is putting immense pressure on resources and infrastructure. 

Why does it matter?

Africa’s population, while not growing as fast as a decade ago, is still the fastest-growing on earth. This helps drive its low median age, but also creates huge pressures on every resource there, and more than ever in a changing climate. Given the intensification of drought in sub-Saharan Africa, we should expect continued waves of mass migration from the region well into the future.

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03.  Africa: Water Pressure is Intensifying

What does this show?

Africa is the only major region on earth where water pressures are intensifying on a per-capita basis. 

Why does it matter?

The intensification of water pressures in Africa is remarkable, and singular on a global scale. Much of it has to do with continuing drought, with much of sub-Saharan African againt suffering through a busted rainy season, and drought will only intensify in a changing & warming climate. At the same time, however, pressures are intensifying on a per capita basis because of the region’s rapidly growing population, all of which wants at least a basic standard of living. No treaty or technology can easily solve this problem, despite fixable waste and much poor infrastructure. 

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Welcome to another edition. Here are today’s entries:

01.  The Phillps Curve’s Missing Curve

What does this show?

There is an inverse negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, except there isn’t one anymore. And maybe there never was one.

Why does it matter?

The Phillips curve shows that inflation and unemployment have an inverse relationship, in that higher inflation is associated with lower unemployment and vice versa. Except that’s mostly not true, in particular in recent years. Of late, there has been no relationship at all, which has been something of a puzzle. Where did the relationship go? Can we have whatever interest rate we want and not get inflation? Doesn’t the supply of money matter? Economists had started to wonder. It was only post-pandemic that the curve seemed to partially return, with higher inflation finally appearing, but, so far, without a sharp rise in unemployment. Like so many things in economics, the Phillips curve works terrifically in theory, but not so well in practice.

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02.  Banks Have Become Weird in the U.S.

What does this show?

Many U.S. banks need more money, and they’ve been trying to avoid getting it from depositors.

Why does it matter?

Banking can be a fairly simple business. Banks accept money from others and pay interest on that money, lend money out on which they charge interest, and try to make sure what they get for their loans is more than what they pay depositors. Money that they don’t loan out is kept in safe and secure things, like government bonds & bills, which pay interest and add to bank income.

Zero interest rates messed all this up for banks. To generate interest income they had to buy long-dated treasuries, with their higher rates, but long-dated debt gets whip-sawed by rates unless you hold it until it matures. But inflation, and then rising rates to bring it under control, has made a mess of bank balance sheets. Banks’ bond holdings are getting smashed by higher rates, and depositors are going elsewhere, given that banks are trying to make money by keeping the rate spread between what they pay out in interest and what they get in interest as large as possible. This has made banks into weird entities, reluctant to provide things their customers want, which makes their customers leave, which makes them more fragile.

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03.  La Nina Finally Leaves the Building

What does this show?

After three consecutive La Nina events, models say it is finally over.

Why does it matter?

While back-to-back La Nina patterns are unusual, to have three in a row is unprecedented in the modern record. It is difficult to know the relative importance of climate change in this pattern, but most studies suggest it played a role, even if uncertain how large. At the same time, there are certainly freakish and unusual patterns going on, with a new study suggesting, based on tree ring data, this year’s California snow and floods are perhaps a 1000-year event, wildly outside anything that could be expected.

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Welcome to another edition. Here are today’s entries:

01.  Peaks and Troughs in Long-Running TV Shows

What does this show?

Television shows rise and fall, but mostly they just slide from a strong start.

Why does it matter?

There is this idea in sociology that is often called Lindy’s Law, and it’s the idea that the future life expectancy of certain things is proportional to their current age. If it’s been around for five years, a reasonable guess is it might be around for five years more. While Lindy’s Law applies to television shows—long-running shows are likely to be around a while longer—but it doesn’t say anything about how good they are as they continue running. And the reality is, with rare exceptions, their quality decline in fairly predictable.

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02.  Technology Companies as Dead Parrots

What does this show?

It’s not your imagination: Technologies companies are letting employees faster than are other sectors.

Why does it matter?

The median publicly-traded technology company doubled employment between 2018 and 2023. That remarkable growth outpaced revenues in most cases, and was a function of free money, revenues pulled forward from future years, and companies thinking they needed to outpace one another to hoard “scarce” technical talent. Those all turned out to be transient ideas: people are no longer scarce, money isn’t free, and all that revenue pulled forward is gone. Technology, while maturing, is mostly getting cut by self-inflicted wounds.

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03.  Podcasts Aren’t Dead Yet

What does this show?

Podcasts can feel vaguely embarrassing and a little five years ago, but they are still strong and are growing in 2023.

Why does it matter?

There is a general sense that podcasts are past their due date, but the latest data suggests that’s not true. As a matter of fact, it seems like there’s an uptick in 2023 in terms of the percentage of the population back listening to podcasts. This could be because people are back driving to work, commuting to work, or whatever, but the upshot is the same: podcasts, while no longer the new-new hot-hot thing, are a viable and important medium in 2023.

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