Welcome to another edition. Here are today’s entries:
01. Agonists and the Future of Obesity
What does this show?
Obesity in America has been soaring for decades, and doing it faster and further than anywhere else in the world.
Why does it matter?
Most weight loss interventions don’t work, which helps explain rising obesity in the U.S. The data is fairly clear: most people don’t meet their weight loss targets (if they have targets), and if they do meet their target, they regain most of that weight within 1-2 years. Given that obesity is a primary factor in many metabolic health conditions, from diabetes to cardiovascular disorders, better interventions are in persistent and growing demand. Enter the GLP-1 agonists class of drugs. These products have shown remarkable effectiveness in trials, and are performing at least as well in the real world. Despite some hurdles to usage, like requiring subcutaneous injection, and insurance for long-term use, these look like blockbuster products, and will only do better once oral formulations are introduced. They don’t cure obesity, and require long-term use, and do nothing about other aspects of fitness, but they remain a huge step forward in metabolic disease.
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02. California as Snow Globe
What does this show?
While monthly snow totals have been in broad decline for decades, this winter’s snow total in California is a remarkable outlier.
Why does it matter?
In California’s Sierra Nevadas it just won’t stop snowing this winter. After a record-setting January, the atmospheric snow gun got going again in February, and the California Sierra Snow Lab is now at 560 inches of snow, less than a foot from the 2017 total, which many thought unassailable in a warming world. But as climatologists will tell you, a warming atmosphere has a higher moisture content, which means that future cycles will be more extreme: greater dryness and wetness. This year is the latter, and the moisture has been staggering, with buildings collapsing, roads closed, and enough snow in the snowpack to probably largely refill state reservoirs. There is a huge risk that this anomaly gets treated as the rule, but it isn’t. Instead it is an example of just the kinds of extreme-extremes we should expect in the future, whether wet or dry.
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03. Peak Oil Peaking Again
What does this show?
Oil demand is soaring as China re-opens, but oil supply isn’t keeping up.
Why does it matter?
It is already hard to remember, but a year ago global oil prices were more than 50% higher than they are today, $115 vs the current $79. But a year ago China was still in rotating pandemic lockdowns, and supply was still climbing. Now, however, neither is the case: China demand is soaring, and supply has been down over the last few months. The U.S., which has been a growing swing supplier in recent years, hasn’t been able to make up the difference, and OPEC hasn’t wanted to. Further, the war in Ukraine has been highly disruptive to supply chains. This leaves little room for global oil markets to absorb soaring China demand. The upshot: We should expect higher prices sooner, perhaps $100 or more before demand growth begins to slow.
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